Strong Growth Forecast for European E-Commerce

A recent report by Forrester predicts that Europe's e-commerce market will experience significant growth between 2024 and 2029.

According to the study, online sales in Europe are expected to rise from €389 billion in 2024 to €565 billion by 2029, with e-commerce accounting for an increasing share of total retail sales.

Key Markets Driving Growth

The report analyzed e-commerce trends in Western Europe’s five largest economies: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. While the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of European e-commerce is expected to slow slightly to 7.8% from 2023 to 2029, online sales will make up nearly 21% of total retail revenue in these five markets by 2029, compared to 16% in 2024.

Despite the rapid expansion of e-commerce, brick-and-mortar retail is seeing much slower growth. Offline retail sales in Europe are projected to grow at a modest CAGR of just 1.7% by 2029, a significant drop from the 4.1% growth in 2023 and 8.9% in 2022.

The UK and Germany Lead Europe’s E-Commerce Boom

Among European markets, the UK continues to dominate online retail. By 2029, the UK’s e-commerce sales are expected to reach €207 billion (£176 billion), up from €152 billion (£130 billion) in 2023.

Germany’s e-commerce sector is also set to expand, with online sales projected to rise from €97 billion in 2023 to €146 billion in 2029. Meanwhile, France's e-commerce revenue is expected to grow from €73 billion in 2023 to €106 billion by 2029.

By 2029, online sales will account for 32% of the UK’s total retail market, followed by 21% in Germany and 17% in France.

E-Commerce Reshaping Europe’s Retail Landscape

The rapid rise of e-commerce in Europe is transforming the retail sector. Businesses must adapt to evolving consumer demands by offering seamless shopping experiences and personalized services to attract and retain customers.

Over the next decade, the integration of online and offline retail experiences will determine market leaders. Companies that innovate in digital transformation, logistics, and customer engagement will gain a competitive edge in the growing European e-commerce market.